The World Bank has warned that rising regional conflicts, climate-related disasters and tighter global financial conditions pose serious risks to economic recovery in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan, with Pakistan among the most vulnerable economies.
According to the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects, January 2026 report, growth in emerging economies performed better than expected in 2025, but the outlook ahead remains highly uncertain.
The report cautioned that renewed armed conflicts, escalating geopolitical tensions, extreme weather events, volatility in oil and commodity prices, and global monetary tightening could severely impact fragile economies across the region.
On Pakistan, the report said the country faces acute risks from climate change. In recent years, floods, heatwaves and other climate shocks have caused significant damage to agriculture, infrastructure and public finances.
The World Bank noted that both the frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters are increasing, raising the risk of higher inflation, slower economic growth and mounting fiscal pressure. Although Pakistan is not officially classified as a conflict-affected country, the situation in Afghanistan continues to pose cross-border risks, including instability, refugee pressures, trade disruptions and higher security-related spending, which could further strain fiscal conditions.
The report also warned that rising geopolitical tensions in the region could disrupt trade routes, undermine investor confidence and affect commodity markets, making it more difficult for Pakistan to attract foreign investment.
According to the World Bank, severe weather events such as floods often destroy crops, damage energy and transport systems, and force governments to divert resources toward emergency relief. The lingering effects of recent devastating floods are still evident in Pakistan’s rural economy, food prices and public debt levels.
The report projected that Pakistan’s current account deficit may widen in fiscal year 2026-27 due to higher imports, improved economic activity and a normalization of remittance inflows following post-flood recovery.
The World Bank stressed the need for Pakistan to increase revenues, improve expenditure oversight, implement institutional reforms and strengthen resilience against climate disasters. It also called on the international community to enhance financial and technical support for countries affected by climate change and instability.
