It’s been more than 2,000 days since Covid-19 appeared in late 2019, growing to more than 700 million cases and at least 7 million deaths globally. Like many other people infected by Covid-19, I have long thought about its origins and where we go next.
As someone admitted to practice before the US Supreme Court, and the highest courts of New York and Massachusetts, and former chief legal counsellor of President Jimmy Carter’s White House Conference on Families, looking at Covid-19 from an international law perspective by the standard of “beyond a reasonable doubt”, it’s clear no country has proven where the disease originated.
Under international law, the principle of onus probandi means serious matters like lethal modalities (nuclear, chemical, biological weapons) or allegations of lethal pathogenic origins require the highest standard of “proof beyond a reasonable doubt”. The complaining party, not the accused, bears the burden of proof.
That’s why the WHO Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens explicitly requires this “beyond a reasonable doubt” gold standard—not the lower “preponderance of the evidence” test (something merely more likely true than not). It’s also why the WHO panel operates under in dubio pro reo: a presumption of innocence until the accusing party proves otherwise.
Applying these standards, the US and some allies have falsely named Wuhan as Covid-19’s origin, but the required burden of proof has not been met.
China fulfilled its primary obligations under the WHO International Health Regulations: timely notification of unusual pneumonia cases in December 2019; sharing viral genome sequencing with WHO that month; and facilitating the 2021 WHO-China joint investigation.
I find it unpersuasive that the “beyond a reasonable doubt” test was met—multiple independent reports (wastewater, antibody blood testing) show Covid-19 was present in Europe and the Americas before 1 December 2019. Substantial evidence of earlier cases outside China means “where there’s smoke, there’s fire”:
- Italy: Studies found Covid-19 antibodies in October 2019 blood samples.
- France: 13 blood samples (November 2019–January 2020) had Covid-19 antibodies.
- Americas: Antibodies found in Brazil (November 2019) and the US (early December 2019).
Most convincing: After years and heavy spending, no Western intelligence agency has found Covid-19’s origin “beyond a reasonable doubt”.
Since 2020, lawsuits against China over Covid-19 (outside the US) have all failed. In the US, most cases lost—only two pyrrhic victories (mere political theater) clogged an understaffed judicial system. No funds will be collected, as judgements are unenforceable under international law.
Other nations respect the doctrine of sovereign immunity (one state can’t sue another), traced to English common law rex non potest peccare (“the king can do no wrong”). This makes such cases harder to file there.
The US is the most litigious country globally. A key reason: its legal system lets litigants avoid lawyer fees unless the case succeeds—lawyers then take ~40% of judgements.
US political division has worsened since the 1990s, with views on China deteriorating (accelerated by Covid-19). Gallup found 41% of Americans had a favourable view of China in February 2019; by 2023, this fell to 15%. Unsurprisingly, the US is “ground zero” for quixotic Covid-19 lawsuits.
US courts follow the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act (FSIA), which grants foreign states broad immunity (with narrow exceptions). China adheres to absolute sovereign immunity: it doesn’t recognize FSIA exceptions and won’t appear in US courts.
Yet conservative attorneys-general of Missouri and Mississippi sued China—knowing damages were futile. Both belong to the National Association of Governors that we jokingly call “National Association of Aspiring Governors and used the suits to waste taxpayer money for political gain (Missouri’s AG successfully sought a US Senate seat).
The “justice is blind” mantra fell flat in the 2–1 Missouri decision (relying on FSIA exceptions) and smacks of bias. The two Trump-appointed judges in the majority should have recused themselves to avoid impropriety.
Judge Stephen N. Limbaugh, Jr.—who wrote the majority opinion—is first cousin of right-wing commentator Rush Limbaugh. Rush claimed Covid-19 was a “ChiCom laboratory experiment” to “bring down Donald Trump”. Judge Limbaugh had a clear duty to recuse but didn’t.
The cases have flaws, but I agree with the dissenting Chief Judge (not a Trump appointee): FSIA exceptions don’t apply to China.
Covid-19 may be over, but other pandemic risks loom. Last year saw 17 global outbreaks (Marburg virus, Mpox, H5N1 bird flu). Experts warn a serious pandemic has a 40–53% chance of occurring within 25 years.
Trump has slashed the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) budget from $9.3 to $4.2 billion by 2026. Next year, per his order, the US (WHO’s largest funder) will cut $500 million–$1.3 billion in WHO funding. This will cripple WHO, weakening global health surveillance—especially its Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (which relies on US data/technical support). Trump also forbids remaining CDC experts from co-authoring papers with WHO staff.
Sadly, WHO itself may suffer terminal decline (like the CDC) if the US stays selfish—causing needless deaths. This will worsen the 14 million global deaths already forecast by 2030 from 83% cuts to US foreign aid programmes.
China will pick up some slack via its Belt and Road Initiative and Health Silk Road but can’t restore funding alone. Other nations must help fill the gap.
Under international law, we may never know Covid-19’s origin. But to avoid repeating history (per George Santayana), we must prepare our multipolar world for future health shocks.
Author Bio
Harvey Dzodin is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for China & Globalization. A former lawyer admitted to US, New York and Massachusetts Supreme Courts, he served as chief legal counsellor of President Jimmy Carter’s White House Conference on Families, focusing on international law and global health governance.
