Global temperatures are set to break records in next five years, with 98% chance one will be warmest ever recorded
The WMO said earlier this month that the chances of El Nino developing were 60 percent by the end of July and 80 percent by the end of September.
Typically, El Nino increases global temperatures in the year after it develops – which in this cycle would be 2024.
Despite the cooling influence of La Nina conditions over much of the past three years, the warmest eight years on record have all been from 2015 onwards, with 2016 the hottest.
Heat gets trapped in the atmosphere by so-called greenhouse gases, which are at a record high.
The three major greenhouses gases are carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide.
Temperatures rising since 1960s – Global land and sea mean near-surface temperatures have increased since the 1960s.
The chances of temperatures temporarily exceeding 1.5C above the 1850-1990 average have risen steadily since 2015, a year when they were considered close to zero.
Britain’s Met Office national weather service is the WMO’s lead centre on yearly to 10-yearly climate predictions.
While there is a 66 percent chance that one year between 2023 and 2027 will exceed the 1.5C threshold, there is now a 32 percent chance that the entire five-year mean will do so, the Met Office said.
“Global mean temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, moving us away further and further away from the climate we are used to,” said Met Office expert scientist Leon Hermanson.
Temperatures in 2023 are likely to be higher than the 1991-2020 average in almost all regions except for Alaska, South Africa, South Asia and parts of Australia, the WMO said.
Parts of the South Pacific Ocean are likely to be cooler than average.
